Landscape Production Analysis for Ventura County

Authors: Mike Mertens, Howard Silverman
May 2007

In 2004–05, Ecotrust, a non-profit organization based in Portland, Oregon, led the Vivid Picture project for the Roots of Change Council. The project developed a vision of a sustainable food system for the state of California, a change agenda for reaching that vision, and a set of indicators for measuring progress. The project culminated in the publication of The New Mainstream, which describes a vision of a “sustainable food system [that] encourages a new social contract, an urban-rural partnership redefining the responsibilities eaters and food producers have to each other.”

As part of the Vivid Picture project, Ecotrust modeled the California food system under current and potential future conditions. These analyses, conducted under a range of assumptions, include an urban expansion analysis, projecting the effects of population growth on available agricultural lands; a value chain analysis, projecting the adaptability of various value-chain business models to meet growing demand for fresh produce; and an agro-ecological zone analysis, evaluating potential agricultural production.

In December 2006, the Ag Innovations Network and Ag Futures Alliance invited Ecotrust to use the California agro-ecological zone analysis as the basis for a landscape production analysis of Ventura County. This preliminary summary describes the results of the analysis; a formal report on methods will follow.

Background and Summary

Agro-ecological zone (AEZ) analysis was developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to describe the effect of ecological factors on agricultural regimes. Our AEZ analysis for California utilizes a modified version of the FAO methodology.

Crop production depends on a range of ecological variables, including soil quality, land elevation and slope, temperature and temperature variability, precipitation, and access to water. By clustering these ecological variables into logical groupings, we are able to define a system of agro-ecological zones and the suitability for specific crop production within each zone. Drawing upon datasets of more than a dozen such ecological factors, we classified and mapped the California landscape into roughly 100 AEZs.

These AEZ classifications allow us to describe and map potential scenarios of alternative crop production. We can quantify and visualize the substitutability of one crop for another, the landscape impacts of climate change or groundwater depletion, and potential responses to varying levels of market demand.

The landscape of Ventura County exhibits 31, or roughly one third of the agro-ecological zones present throughout California. Although a small selection of crops currently dominate agricultural production in the county, there is an ecological basis for a much broader agricultural regime (maps 1 and 2). Crops grown in California that could not be grown in Ventura County include those associated with northern latitudes and high-altitudes, such as hops and certain species of fruits and nuts.

Building on this AEZ analysis, Ecotrust’s landscape production analysis uses a set of equations to apply 2003 California Department of Food & Agriculture (CDF&A) county-specific data about crop productivity to the AEZs in Ventura County. Using this breakdown of AEZ-specific productivity in Ventura County, we are then able to develop scenarios of the ecological capacity for diversification of Ventura County production, as well as the associated crop output under each scenario.

Download this report (5.8mb PDF)